billconan 5 hours ago

> which at $5,101 per computer at that time equated to about $684 billion in revenue. The number of global internet users was about 361 million in 2000, which at $113 a month equals about $489 billion in revenue ($850 billion in 2024 dollars).

I have never spent $5101 on a computer or $113 a month for internet access so far.

And is it reasonable to count computer hardware spending as internet revenue?

  • dragonwriter 5 hours ago

    So, the mistakes here are legion:

    1. They've taken an expensive-for-the-time premium-brand desktop as (the $2,699 Compaq ProSignia Desktop 330) as a baseline for per-computer price [0], whereas common entry-level models were as little as 1/4 that price around that time [1]. This number is then multiplied by an estimate of unit sales for that year, and adjusted for inflation, to get the $684 billion total (inflation-adjusted to current year) revenue figure. Direct estimates of year 2000 PC revenue seem to be about $226 billion, which adjusted for inflation would be $413 billion in current-year dollars.

    2. For internet access revenue they've taken a US DSL offering (BellAtlantic's $59.95 DSL offering) even though in 2000 most users were on dialup (US dialup to broadband [which DSL was considered in 2000, though 2000 DSL wouldn't meet todays broadband definition] ration was over 10:1 [2], and globally presumably that was even higher), adjusted the cost of that service for inflation to current year dollars ($113), multiplied it by the number of global internet users in 2000 to get a (note: already inflation adjusted) revenue estimate of $489 billion for internet access, and then decided that applying a high-end US household offering as the estimate of typical cost per user globally wasn't ridiculous enough, so they decided to treat the $489 billion that was already based on inflation-adjusted per-user cost and as if it were a year 2000 dollars estimate and adjusted it for inflation again to get the estimate of $850 billion in "current year" dollars.

    3. As you note, the dubious choice of counting all PC revenue in 2000 as being internet revenue in the first place. People were buying PCs -- for both business and home use -- when most of them weren't connected to the internet; the internet in 2000 wasn't the sole value proposition for computer ownership, even if it was becoming a more significant portion of it.

    [0] An odd choice, but one which may be explained by this 2021 article purporting to show the cost of a computer by year by simply picking one "notable" model each year picking the same one for that year: https://www.chicagotribune.com/2021/09/20/cost-of-a-computer... (the article clearly isn't choosing median, common, or comparable models each year, as looking at the individual models and prices makes very clear.)

    [1] https://www.bizjournals.com/sacramento/stories/1999/01/18/da...

    [2] https://www.pewresearch.org/chart/broadband-vs-dial-up-adopt...